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Determinants of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Shoora B. Paudyal Ph.D.

    (Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu)

Abstract

This paper examines short term and long term effects of the macroeconomic variables on the inflation in Nepal during 1975-2011. The variables considered are budget deficits, Indian prices, broad money supply, exchange rate and real GDP. The regression results from Wickens-Breusch Single Equation Error Correction model suggest that all variables considered are significant in long run implying that these variables are the determinants of inflation in Nepal. However, only budget deficit, money supply and Indian prices cause inflation in the short run. The results are consistent with monetarists’ hypothesis of money matters and inflationary gap theory of Keynesian as well as supply constraints approach to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoora B. Paudyal Ph.D., 2014. "Determinants of Inflation in Nepal: An Empirical Assessment," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 26(2), pages 61-82, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:61
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    File URL: http://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/pdffiles/vol26-2_art4.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Budget Deficits; Single Equation ECM; Imported Prices; Consumer Price Index; M2; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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