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Who is Afraid of the Stick? Experimentally Testing the Deterrent Effect of Sanction Certainty

Author

Listed:
  • Engel, Christoph
  • Nagin, Daniel

Abstract

The empirical literature on deterrence tends to find stronger and more consistent evidence in support of the deterrent effect of the certainty than for the severity of punishment. Three distinct explanations have been advanced: (1) risk preferences of potential criminals, (2) the present orientation of potential criminals, and (3) stigma. We report an experiment that rules out the second and third explanations by design, and that provides a direct test of the first explanation. We find that risk averse participants are more deterred by severity, as predicted by theory. Yet risk seeking participants are not more deterred by certainty if the offense has a positive expected value, or if its expected value is zero. The theory is only supported if the sanction is so severe and frequent that committing the offense has a negative expected value.

Suggested Citation

  • Engel, Christoph & Nagin, Daniel, 2015. "Who is Afraid of the Stick? Experimentally Testing the Deterrent Effect of Sanction Certainty," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 2(4), pages 405-434, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlrbe:105.00000037
    DOI: 10.1561/105.00000037
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Engel, 2016. "Experimental Criminal Law. A Survey of Contributions from Law, Economics and Criminology," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2016_07, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. Oren Bar-Gill & Christoph Engel, 2016. "Bargaining in the Absence of Property Rights: An Experiment," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 477-495.
    3. Marina Agranov & Anastasia Buyalskaya, 2022. "Deterrence Effects of Enforcement Schemes: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3573-3589, May.
    4. Barati Mehdi, 2019. "Punishment Severity and Crime: The Case of Arkansas," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Santos Arteaga, Francisco J. & Tavana, Madjid & Di Caprio, Debora & Toloo, Mehdi, 2019. "A dynamic multi-stage slacks-based measure data envelopment analysis model with knowledge accumulation and technological evolution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(2), pages 448-462.
    6. Mungan, Murat C., 2017. "The certainty versus the severity of punishment, repeat offenders, and stigmatization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 126-129.
    7. Sascha Behnk & Iván Barreda-Tarrazona & Aurora García-Gallego, 2018. "Punishing liars—How monitoring affects honesty and trust," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    8. Barati, Mehdi & Adams, Scott, 2019. "Enhanced penalties for carrying firearms illegally and their effects on crime," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 207-219.
    9. Chao, Hong & Ho, Chun-Yu & Huang, Shaoqing & Qin, Xiangdong & Cong, Jiajia, 2019. "Partners or rivals? An experimental study of a two-stage tournament," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 288-310.
    10. Earnhart, Dietrich, 2020. "Stated choices of environmental managers: The role of punishment," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Duffy, John & Ralston, Jason, 2020. "Innovate versus imitate: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 727-751.
    12. Thomas Giel & Sören Dallmeyer & Daniel Memmert & Christoph Breuer, 2023. "Corruption and Self-Sabotage in Sporting Competitions – An Experimental Approach to Match-Fixing Behavior and the Influence of Deterrence Factors," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 497-525, May.
    13. Menegatti, Mario, 2023. "Variability in punishment, risk preferences and crime deterrence," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Certaintly and severity of sanction; Risk preference; Experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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