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Not-so-Natural Experiments in History

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  • Christian Dippel and Bryan Leonard

Abstract

This paper compares the role of cliometrics — broadly defined to include economics, political science, and other social sciences — before and after the "credibility revolution" of the late 1990s. The contributions of cliometrics that led to the 1993 Nobel Prize were due primarily to a combination of quantification and economic theory with in-depth historical knowledge. After the credibility revolution, much of cliometrics shifted toward "natural experiments," especially in papers published in general-interest journals. We argue that this shift comes with certain trade-offs between statistical and contextual evidence, and that the refereeing process currently makes these trade-offs steeper in historical settings than in other observational-data settings. We also argue, however, that historical settings offer particularly actionable ways of flattening these trade-offs to ensure the "clio" in cliometrics stays alive and well.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dippel and Bryan Leonard, 2021. "Not-so-Natural Experiments in History," Journal of Historical Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlhpe:112.115.00000001
    DOI: 10.1561/115.00000001
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2023. "Is economic history changing its nature? Evidence from top journals," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 23-48, January.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert, 2021. "The Role of Cliometrics in History and Economics," Working Papers of BETA 2021-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2022. "Persistence studies: a new kind of economic history?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 42(3), pages 227-248, December.
    4. Martina Cioni & Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2021. "The State of the Art of Economic History: The Uneasy Relation with Economics," Working Papers 20210067, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jun 2021.
    5. Zhao, Qiyi C., 2023. "Rethinking “Distance From”: Lessons from Wittenberg and Mainz," MPRA Paper 118414, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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