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Dispersion in Options Investors’ Versus Analysts’ Expectations: Predictive Inference for Stock Returns

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  • Andreou, Panayiotis C.
  • Kagkadis, Anastasios
  • Maio, Paulo
  • Philip, Dennis

Abstract

We create a market-wide measure of dispersion in options investors’ expectations by aggregating across all stocks the dispersion in trading volume across moneynesses (DISP). DISP exhibits strong negative predictive power for future market returns and its information content is not subsumed by several alternative equity premium predictors. Consistent with the implications of theoretical models that link dispersion to overpricing, the predictive power of DISP is particularly pronounced in relatively optimistic periods. Although an aggregate analysts’ forecasts dispersion (AFD) measure also performs well in optimistic periods, it delivers insignificant overall predictability. This is because in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, AFD was heavily driven by pessimistic forecasts and hence its increase did not reflect a true overpricing. As a result, AFD does not appear to be a robust equity premium predictor in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2021. "Dispersion in Options Investors’ Versus Analysts’ Expectations: Predictive Inference for Stock Returns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 65-81, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlcfr:104.00000091
    DOI: 10.1561/104.00000091
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    Keywords

    Dispersion in beliefs; Predictability of stock returns; Equity premium; Trading volume dispersion; Out-of-sample predictability; Economic significance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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