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Tipping Points

Author

Listed:
  • Lamberson, P. J.
  • Page, Scott E.

Abstract

This paper formally defines tipping points as discontinuities between current and future states of a system and introduces candidate measures of when a system tips based on changes in the probability distribution over future states. We make two categorical distinctions between types of tips relevant in social contexts: The first differentiates between direct tips and contextual tip . A direct tip occurs when a gradual change in the value of a variable leads to a large, i.e. discontinuous, jump in that same variable in th future. A contextual tip occurs when a gradual change in the value of one variable leads to a discontinuous jump in some other variable of interest. We argue that while scholars and writers often focus on direct tips, contextual tips often make direct tips possible, such as when human rights conditions in a state deteriorate creating the potential for an uprising. The second differentiates tips between outcomes that belong to the same class — such as tips from one equilibrium to another — from tips that result in a change in the outcome class, such as tips that occur when an equilibrium system becomes chaotic or complex.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamberson, P. J. & Page, Scott E., 2012. "Tipping Points," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 7(2), pages 175-208, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00011061
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00011061
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    Cited by:

    1. Ong C. & Witte K. de, 2013. "The influence of ethnic segregation and school mobility in primary education on high school dropout : evidence from regression discontinuity at a contextual tipping point," MERIT Working Papers 2013-064, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    3. Sophie Urmetzer & Michael P. Schlaile & Kristina B. Bogner & Matthias Mueller & Andreas Pyka, 2018. "Exploring the Dedicated Knowledge Base of a Transformation towards a Sustainable Bioeconomy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, May.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684boj041a440irqd is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2016. "Six degrees of cultural diversity and R&D output efficiency," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 247-264, October.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2019. "Cultural attitudes, economic shocks and political radicalization," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 529-562, June.
    8. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.

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