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Data and Risk Analytics for Production Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Liao
  • Yao, David D.

Abstract

We examine the classical productional planning model, where a capacity decision that has to be made at the beginning of the planning horizon is the primary means to protect against demand uncertainty. We provide a critique on the model focusing on its profit maximizing objective, its underlying assumptions on demand and related forecasting scheme, and its overall business relevance (or the lack thereof); and we do so in the context of data, risk and analytics. Specifically, we will consider minimizing a shortfall risk relative to a profit target, with a demand model that captures impacts from the financial market and can be learned from data sets that are application specific. With a jointly optimized production and hedging strategy, we show the new model outperforms traditional approaches in risk mitigation as well as in expected profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Liao & Yao, David D., 2019. "Data and Risk Analytics for Production Planning," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 12(2-3), pages 201-218, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:fnttom:0200000086
    DOI: 10.1561/0200000086
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2001. "Contracting to Assure Supply: How to Share Demand Forecasts in a Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(5), pages 629-646, May.
    2. Terry A. Taylor & Erica L. Plambeck, 2007. "Simple Relational Contracts to Motivate Capacity Investment: Price Only vs. Price and Quantity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 94-113, January.
    3. Helper, Susan, 1991. "Strategy and Irreversibility in Supplier Relations: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 781-824, January.
    4. Brian Tomlin, 2003. "Capacity Investments in Supply Chains: Sharing the Gain Rather Than Sharing the Pain," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 317-333, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Hedging; Operational risk; Supply chain finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management

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