IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nov/artigo/v28y2018i1p40-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uma análise preditiva para o uso do instrumento antidumping na Argentina [A predictive analysis for the use of antidumping in Argentina]

Author

Listed:
  • Vinícius de Azevedo Couto

    (UFJF)

Abstract

Este trabalho verificou o impacto de fatores macroeconômicos sobre a abertura de casos antidumping (AD) na Argentina e usou o modelo resultante para prever o uso do AD nesse país. Para tanto, considerou dados trimestrais de 1995 a 2010. Os modelos, estimados via Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), Poisson e Binominal Negativo, revelaram que as variáveis defasadas causam maiores impactos sobre a abertura de casos AD que as variáveis contemporâneas. Além disso, uma piora nas transações correntes, uma desvalorização cambial ou um crescimento nas rendas da Argentina, do Brasil e do resto do mundo tenderiam a reduzir os casos AD. Quanto às previsões, verificou-se que o modelo de Poisson foi o que mais se aproximou do número real médio de medidas AD iniciadas pela Argentina. Contudo, o MQO produziu os menores resíduos. De modo geral, a boa capacidade preditiva de tais modelos revela um mau uso do AD por parte da Argentina.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinícius de Azevedo Couto, 2018. "Uma análise preditiva para o uso do instrumento antidumping na Argentina [A predictive analysis for the use of antidumping in Argentina]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 28(1), pages 40-70, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:28:y:2018:i:1:p:40-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/pdf/neco/v28n1/0103-6351-neco-28-01-39.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-63512018000100039&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    antidumping; política comercial; variáveis macroeconômicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:28:y:2018:i:1:p:40-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucas Resende de Carvalho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fufmgbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.