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A taxa de câmbio e os ajustes no saldo da balança comercial brasileira: uma análise setorial da Curva J [Exchange rate and adjustments in the Brazilian trade balance: a sectoral analysis of the J Curve]

Author

Listed:
  • Hélio Sousa Ramos Filho

    (UFPB)

  • Maysa Evellyn Porfírio Ferreira

    (UFPB)

Abstract

This paper aims to assess whether or not the phenomenon J Curve for 19 sectors of the Brazilian manufacturing industry. Data were collected from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) and the variables used were the Effective Real Exchange Rate, GDP of Brazil, World GDP corresponding to the period 1996-2012. Methodology used was the ARDL cointegration model proposed in Pesaran et al. (2001). The results suggest that only four sectors - Aeronautics and Aerospace, Wood and its Products and Pulp and Paper, NE Manufactures and Recycled Goods - seem to exhibit the effect incomplete J Curve. Moreover, the sector of Naval Construction and Repair, presents incomplete evidence and reversed the curve phenomenon J. Therefore, the occurrence of incomplete Curve J is not associated with the degree of technological intensity sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélio Sousa Ramos Filho & Maysa Evellyn Porfírio Ferreira, 2016. "A taxa de câmbio e os ajustes no saldo da balança comercial brasileira: uma análise setorial da Curva J [Exchange rate and adjustments in the Brazilian trade balance: a sectoral analysis of the J Curv," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 26(3), pages 887-907, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:26:y:2016:i:3:p:887-907
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    J Curve; cointegration test; trade balance; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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