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Inflação e regimes cambiais: análise de painel [Inflation and exchange rate regimes: a panel data analysis]

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso

    (Caixa Econômica Federal)

  • Flavio Vilela Vieira

    (UFU)

Abstract

The main goal of this work is to investigate inflation determinants taking into account the role of exchange rate regimes, fiscal and monetary policy elements, and also to address the relevance of the international financial crisis and the adoption (or not) of inflation target. The analysis is developed for a set of 82 economies in the period of 1990-2009. The empirical results for the three periods analyzes (1990 to 2009, 1990 to 1999, and 2000 to 2009), focusing in understanding the relation between exchange rate regime and inflation reveals a nonconsensual pattern. The evidences also suggests the relevance of other variables for inflation, including money growth rate, government debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, real interest rate and lagged inflation. An additional evidence indicates that inflation target countries are associated to lower inflation, but this result is restricted to the period of 1990 to 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos de Almeida Cardoso & Flavio Vilela Vieira, 2016. "Inflação e regimes cambiais: análise de painel [Inflation and exchange rate regimes: a panel data analysis]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 26(3), pages 855-886, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:26:y:2016:i:3:p:855-886
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; exchange rate regime; Panel Data analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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