IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nov/artigo/v26y2016i3p809-854.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dos “voos de galinha” ao crescimento sustentado? Projetando o crescimento potencial brasileiro para o período 2013-2020, com ênfase no efeito do setor petróleo [From unsustained to sustained growth? Forecasting Brazilian potential growth for the period 2013-2020, with emphasis on the effect of the oil sector]

Author

Listed:
  • Breno Carvalho Roos

    (UFRJ)

  • André Luis Cabral de Lourenço

    (UFRN)

Abstract

This paper discusses the role that oil industry plays in the Brazilian macroeconomics and uses a projection method to formulate different scenarios, covering the 2013-2020 period. A model that emphasizes the external sector is used to evaluate the hypothesis that development of oil industry - through the pre-salt layer - will raise potential economic growth of the country, considering that restrictions on balance of payments and fiscal can be mitigated. It was found that international oil price is a key element for domestic economic policy, given its impact on domestic prices. The projections indicate that the average growth rate of Brazil - conditional on trajectory of increasing oil production and economic policies adopted - will follow low until 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Breno Carvalho Roos & André Luis Cabral de Lourenço, 2016. "Dos “voos de galinha” ao crescimento sustentado? Projetando o crescimento potencial brasileiro para o período 2013-2020, com ênfase no efeito do setor petróleo [From unsustained to sustained growth? F," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 26(3), pages 809-854, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:26:y:2016:i:3:p:809-854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/pdf/neco/v26n3/1980-5381-neco-26-03-00809.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-63512016000300809&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential growth; Brazil; oil; forecast; external sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:26:y:2016:i:3:p:809-854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucas Resende de Carvalho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fufmgbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.