Política econômica e credibilidade: evidências empíricas e técnicas econométricas [Economic policy and credibility: empirical evidence and econometric techniques]

This article presents a review of empirical literature regarding the credibility of economic policy, dedicating special attention to the econometric techniques used. The literature researched is comprised of two groups based on the type of econometric technique employed. However, within the main groups, reference is made to the four ways of conducting monetary policy currently being used in the world today: monetary aggregate targets, exchange rate peg, inflation targets, and preventive monetary policy with no explicit nominal peg. This text also refers to underlying theoretical models, when applicable. Brazilian empirical literature on this subject is reviewed in its own separate section.