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Mass subsidized mortgage: No extension, no termination?

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  • G. A. Zhirnov

Abstract

After the launch of mass preferential mortgage program in 2020, subsidizing interest rates on housing loans has become a key factor affecting the primary housing market in Russia. In 2024, the portfolio of preferential mortgage lending approached RUB 9 trillion, indicating the high importance of this factor for the financial sector and the entire economy. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of subsidized mortgage programs and their effect on the socio-economic situation remain a subject of debate among economists, politicians and the public. The paper analyzes the impact of these programs on the residential real estate market, house prices and housing affordability. The core part of the paper contains the estimation of the scale of the substitution effect — the share of subsidized mortgage loans that would have been granted under market conditions. Based on the results obtained, alternative methods of housing support are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • G. A. Zhirnov, 2025. "Mass subsidized mortgage: No extension, no termination?," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2025:id:5113
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-1-115-133
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