IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nos/voprec/y2024id4558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • E. N. Timushev
  • Yu. V. Dubrovskaya
  • E. V. Kozonogova

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to predict demographic changes at the regional level, based on the variation of the parameters of the healthcare system presumed to be a significant factor in both the number of population and its qualitative characteristics. It is assumed that a reform of the healthcare system reflects the institutional nature of state regulation and serves functionally as an exogenous shock in the model. Based on the agent-based modeling a model consisting of two regions has been developed. It takes into account the migration of agents making decisions based on the level of private income. Various scenarios for modeling demographic indicators are presented, depending on the selected quality regime of the healthcare system that reflects the institutional features of the region. The model is calculated based on the statistics for the Perm Region and the Sverdlovsk Region for the period 2012—2019. The approbation of the model on actual regional data confirmed its operability and adequacy. Shocks in the healthcare system are associated with the corresponding budget expenditures under budget constraints of the regional government sector and have an impact on the dynamics of migration at regional labor markets, as well as on the simulated health indicators. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the presented methodological approach, which can be used in the development of regional strategies, as well as planning and assessing the consequences of state reforms in social policy.

Suggested Citation

  • E. N. Timushev & Yu. V. Dubrovskaya & E. V. Kozonogova, 2024. "Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2024:id:4558
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/viewFile/4558/2656
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2024:id:4558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: NEICON (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.vopreco.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.