IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nos/voprec/y2020id3283.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Replacement rate as an instrument of analysis and forecasting of pension system

Author

Listed:
  • Y. M. Gorlin
  • V. Y. Lyashok
  • A. A. Salmina

Abstract

The article examines one of the main indicators of pension adequacy the replacement rate. The importance of using this indicator for pension system management is substantiated. A methodology for determining theoretical and empirical replacement rates is proposed in relation to the peculiarities of the Russian system of compulsory pension insurance. The article presents the results of calculations carried out on the model of the theoretical replacement rate developed by the authors, according to which, in the current Russian conditions, the replacement coefficient for an employee with a median wage and average length of service is more than 40%, which corresponds to the international criteria for the sufficiency of pensions for this indicator. However, with higher wages, for example, equal to the average for Russia and above, there is a lag behind the level of most EU countries. Modeling shows that in 2002—2018, there was an increase in the differentiation of pensions and replacement rates depending on wages. The performed forecast calculations for the period up to 2050 have revealed the following trends: a decrease in replacement rates for recipients of minimum and median salaries, approximate stabilization for average salaries and growth for recipients with high salaries. The article provides a number of examples of using the theoretical replacement rate for the analysis of the pension system in terms of the effect on the level of pensions: participation in the formation of pension savings, valorization, years of the insurance period, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Y. M. Gorlin & V. Y. Lyashok & A. A. Salmina, 2020. "Replacement rate as an instrument of analysis and forecasting of pension system," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 12.
  • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2020:id:3283
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2020-12-80-103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/viewFile/3283/2335
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-12-80-103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2020:id:3283. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: NEICON (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.vopreco.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.