IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nos/voprec/y2018id392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of expert and official oil price forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • E. T. Gurvich
  • I. V. Prilepskiy

Abstract

The article studies the factors affecting formation of oil price forecasts by leading expert and official organizations (International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, OPEC, RF Ministry of Economic Development). It is demonstrated that all these forecasts take into account both oil market fundamentals and the current conjuncture, but the significance of these factors differs by agency. Non-linear dependence between forecast accuracy and horizon length is identified. The error is greatest for the projections 6 to 8 years ahead, which may be explained by the mismatch between the linear nature of the forecasts and the actual cyclical oil price dynamics during the last 50 years. Accuracy of short- to medium-term projections by the Ministry of Economic Development is shown to hold a median position among forecasting agencies, with the leading position held by the US Energy Information Administration.

Suggested Citation

  • E. T. Gurvich & I. V. Prilepskiy, 2018. "Analysis of expert and official oil price forecasts," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2018:id:392
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2018-4-26-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/viewFile/392/392
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-4-26-48?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2018:id:392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: NEICON (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.vopreco.ru .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.