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The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

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  • A. Apokin

Abstract

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Apokin, 2013. "The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2013:id:500
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2013-1-97-116
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