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Estimation of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Russia in 1994-2003: Empirical Analysis

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  • V. Bragin
  • V. Osakovsky

Abstract

In order to outline the problem of unemployment in Russia, the authors calculate the natural rate of unemployment by consecutively estimating the optimal number of employed and economically active population. For estimation of optimal values modified Hodrick–Prescott filter was used. The results show that the natural rate of unemployment in Russia in 1994–1997 was stable around 12–12, 5%, and decreased to 8, 1% by 2003. In addition, before 1998 the actual unemployment was significantly lower than the natural rate and currently practically equals it.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Bragin & V. Osakovsky, 2004. "Estimation of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Russia in 1994-2003: Empirical Analysis," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:voprec:y:2004:id:1871
    DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2004-3-95-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Orlov, D. & Postnikov, E., 2022. "Phillips curve: Inflation and NAIRU in the Russian regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 61-80.
    2. Gurvich, E. & Vakulenko, E., 2018. "Studies of Russian Labor Market and Economic Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 203-212.

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