Forecasting The Management Apparatus Enrollment Taking Into Account The Trends Of Socio-Economic Development

The aim of this paper is to develop a model for planning the number of public servants, taking into account the dynamics of socio-economic development of public legal entities. We use both qualitative methods (comparative legal analysis, document analysis, classification) and quantitative econometric methods (correlation analysis, construction of multiple regression and estimation of statistical significance of coefficients using Students t-statistics, Fishers F-statistics, the Durbin-Watson test for homoscedasticity of the model, and scattering diagrams). The strategy of socio-economic development of each subject of the Russian Federation (Strategy) serves as the basis for the public programs and other strategic planning documents. Given that the entire system of public authorities is involved in the implementation of the Strategy, it is important to make a reasonable choice of priority areas and realistic targets for the Strategy. Currently, these conditions are not always met (less than half of the target indicators of the analyzed region Strategy are fully or partially correspond to the Federal program of statistical observations, and the relationship between the forecast and actual dynamics of indicators is rather negative). Planning the number of public servants is carried out under the influence of endogenous factors rather than the status of managed fields. As a result, agencies operating in areas with upward and downward dynamics of development may have similar staff . Staff adjustments do not take into account the level of the Strategys goals achievement, which leads to uneven efficiency of departments. The associated periodic reductions in the number of public servants occur without taking into account the processes in the managed fields. The current paper proposes a method of forecasting the staff of executive authorities, taking into account the dynamics of socio-economic development under conservative, innovative and forced labor productivity growth scenarios. While building the model we ensured the functional nature of the relationship between the number of employees in priority areas and the rate of development of these areas. Also a number recommendations to ensure the quality of the Strategy are provided, e.g. implementing objective statistics, engaging the expert community, variable planning of targets. As all the subjects of the Russian Federation solve similar problems of socio-economic development, it seems that the conclusions and recommendations of this paper can be applied in a broad regional context, both at present and in the future.