Prediction of economic damage from development of coal fields of the eastern regions

The paper reports original predictive calculations evaluating economic harm to the environment from the man-caused effect of coal industry in Russia's eastern areas. The analysis of scientific-technological developments has shown that rational land use and waste processing are major means to decrease the harm. It is shown that if the environmental protection stays at the present level, in 20 years the harm will cost about US$140 million yearly (a pessimistic variant). The most plausible variant of harm reduction 1.3 to 1.6 times against the pessimistic variant is due to use of the available environmental technologies. The introduction of appropriate technologies will allow the damage to be reduced sharply - to 2020 to $0.05 per coal ton region-wide, and to $0.1 Kuzbas-wide. The reduction of the specific damage in this variant will help set off the increased total damage caused by more intensive coal production. This variant is possible only if the conservation activity is subsidized by the state.