Where is Turkey heading?M. Kemal Oke

This article elaborates the political situation in Turkey in general and particularly the era of Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP; the Justice and Development Party). The article is based on observations, an assessment of the specialist and general media and the analyses of experts and academic staff. It commences with an analysis of the perspectives of the current government in terms of ideology, performance, strategy and tactics, and additionally tries to understand the phenomena which lie beyond the success. It also provides some insight into the coup d’état of July 2016 and the referendum on constitutional change held in April 2017, as well as the extremely tense political and social atmosphere in Turkey which lay behind both events and which has been, in turn, influenced by them. Secondly, the article seeks to estimate where Turkey is likely to be heading in the next decade. The author concludes that the path is either radicalisation or normalisation and that, while there are several important actors who will be influential in deciding which is to be taken, it is clear that the current position is not a sustainable one.