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Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Salikhov, M.

    (Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow, Russia
    National Research University "Higher School of Economics", Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifies key risks of decarbonization.

Suggested Citation

  • Salikhov, M., 2022. "Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 213-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2022:i:56:p:213-219
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decarbonization; greenhouse gas emission; CO2; emissions pricing; power sector; heat generation sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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