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End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey

Author

Listed:
  • V. Baugnet

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • P. Butzen

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • S. Cheliout

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • W. Melyn

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Q. Wibaut

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

The article examines recent developments in international housing markets and makes an assessment of the current situation. The first section demonstrates that the last upward movement in house prices in advanced economies, that started during the mid-1990s, differed from previous upward phases because of its strength, duration and degree of synchronisation across countries. Low interest rates, financial innovation, relaxed credit conditions and demographic factors stimulated housing demand and led to higher prices and investment. The strongest increases were recorded in the UK, Spain, Ireland and France. Starting around the mid-2000s, housing markets increasingly displayed signs of overheating and the American subprime crisis of 2006 triggered a downward correction in the US housing market. Housing markets elsewhere displayed a similar pattern around the same period. Nevertheless, developments were less synchronised during this downturn than during the upturn, as the fall in house prices seems to be over in some countries while the correction continues in other countries. The degree of over- or undervaluation of recent house prices can be calculated on the basis of some frequently used measures. Taking into account fundamental factors like disposable income, population growth and the very low interest rate level, it appears that current prices in most countries are more or less in line with fundamentals. These simple measures have their limitations, and consequently one should be cautious when interpreting the results. Additionally, several common risk factors (normalisation of interest rates, lower potential growth after the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation) and some country-specific risk factors might hinder a further recovery of housing markets. The recent crisis clearly demonstrated the need for stricter rules and control of the financial sector. Various initiatives have already been taken, and international institutions have also formulated recommendations for housing policy reform and the functioning of residential property and mortgage markets. Subsequently, the European government debt crisis that started in 2010 stimulated initiatives to strengthen economic governance in the European Union. In the new surveillance framework, macroeconomic risks will be monitored more closely and more broadly, and this will include the use of indicators related to the housing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Baugnet & P. Butzen & S. Cheliout & W. Melyn & Q. Wibaut, 2011. "End of the crisis in the housing markets ? An international survey," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 53-71, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2011:m:june:i:i:p:53-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Lane, 2011. "The Irish Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp356, IIIS.
    2. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    3. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2008/187, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dan Andrews, 2010. "Real House Prices in OECD Countries: The Role of Demand Shocks and Structural and Policy Factors," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 831, OECD Publishing.
    5. Caldera, Aida & Johansson, Åsa, 2013. "The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 231-249.
    6. Luci Ellis, 2010. "The Housing Meltdown: Why Did It Happen in the United States?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 351-394.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ch. Warisse, 2017. "Analysis of the developments in residential property prices : Is the Belgian market overvalued ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 61-77, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; investment in housing; interest rates; financial innovation; demography; valuation; disposable income; United States; United Kingdom; euro area; Belgium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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