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Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology

Author

Listed:
  • B. B. Cael

    (National Oceanography Centre)

  • Kelsey Bisson

    (Oregon State University)

  • Emmanuel Boss

    (University of Maine)

  • Stephanie Dutkiewicz

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Stephanie Henson

    (National Oceanography Centre)

Abstract

Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change1. Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, Rrs), because Rrs is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year Rrs time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in Rrs for 40% of the global surface ocean. The climate-change signal in Rrs emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model2, which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour—and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems—that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • B. B. Cael & Kelsey Bisson & Emmanuel Boss & Stephanie Dutkiewicz & Stephanie Henson, 2023. "Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7970), pages 551-554, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:619:y:2023:i:7970:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06321-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z
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