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Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests

Author

Listed:
  • Peter B. Reich

    (University of Minnesota
    Western Sydney University
    University of Michigan)

  • Raimundo Bermudez

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Rebecca A. Montgomery

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Roy L. Rich

    (University of Minnesota
    Smithsonian Environmental Research Center)

  • Karen E. Rice

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Sarah E. Hobbie

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Artur Stefanski

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain1–9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Reich & Raimundo Bermudez & Rebecca A. Montgomery & Roy L. Rich & Karen E. Rice & Sarah E. Hobbie & Artur Stefanski, 2022. "Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 608(7923), pages 540-545, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:608:y:2022:i:7923:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05076-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05076-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ariane Mirabel & Martin P. Girardin & Juha Metsaranta & Danielle Way & Peter B. Reich, 2023. "Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Ronny Rotbarth & Egbert H. Nes & Marten Scheffer & Jane Uhd Jepsen & Ole Petter Laksforsmo Vindstad & Chi Xu & Milena Holmgren, 2023. "Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Coline C. F. Boonman & Josep M. Serra-Diaz & Selwyn Hoeks & Wen-Yong Guo & Brian J. Enquist & Brian Maitner & Yadvinder Malhi & Cory Merow & Robert Buitenwerf & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2024. "More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Kim, Do-hun & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2024. "Psychological distances to climate change and public preferences for biodiversity-augmenting attributes in family-owned production forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Yibiao Zou & Constantin M. Zohner & Colin Averill & Haozhi Ma & Julian Merder & Miguel Berdugo & Lalasia Bialic-Murphy & Lidong Mo & Philipp Brun & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Jingjing Liang & Sergio de-M, 2024. "Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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