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Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Sen Pei

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Teresa K. Yamana

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Sasikiran Kandula

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Marta Galanti

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Jeffrey Shaman

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States, which experienced the highest numbers of reported cases and deaths during 20201–3. Many of the epidemiological features responsible for observed rates of morbidity and mortality have been reported4–8; however, the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States have not been comprehensively quantified. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the virus. The pandemic in the United States during 2020 was characterized by national ascertainment rates that increased from 11.3% (95% credible interval (CI): 8.3–15.9%) in March to 24.5% (18.6–32.3%) during December. Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6–75.4%), indicating that about one third of the US population had been infected. Community infectious rates, the percentage of people harbouring a contagious infection, increased above 0.8% (0.6–1.0%) before the end of the year, and were as high as 2.4% in some major metropolitan areas. By contrast, the infection fatality rate fell to 0.3% by year’s end.

Suggested Citation

  • Sen Pei & Teresa K. Yamana & Sasikiran Kandula & Marta Galanti & Jeffrey Shaman, 2021. "Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020," Nature, Nature, vol. 598(7880), pages 338-341, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:598:y:2021:i:7880:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03914-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03914-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Qian Zhang & Paul Bastard & Aurélie Cobat & Jean-Laurent Casanova, 2022. "Human genetic and immunological determinants of critical COVID-19 pneumonia," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7902), pages 587-598, March.
    2. Sen Pei & Sasikiran Kandula & Jaime Cascante Vega & Wan Yang & Steffen Foerster & Corinne Thompson & Jennifer Baumgartner & Shama Desai Ahuja & Kathleen Blaney & Jay K. Varma & Theodore Long & Jeffrey, 2022. "Contact tracing reveals community transmission of COVID-19 in New York City," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Haobo Ni & Xiaoyan Cai & Jiarong Ren & Tingting Dai & Jiayi Zhou & Jiumin Lin & Li Wang & Lingxi Wang & Sen Pei & Yunchong Yao & Ting Xu & Lina Xiao & Qiyong Liu & Xiaobo Liu & Pi Guo, 2024. "Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

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