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The universal visitation law of human mobility

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Schläpfer

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Santa Fe Institute
    Singapore-ETH Centre, ETH Zurich)

  • Lei Dong

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Peking University)

  • Kevin O’Keeffe

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Paolo Santi

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Istituto di Informatica e Telematica del CNR)

  • Michael Szell

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    IT University of Copenhagen
    ISI Foundation)

  • Hadrien Salat

    (Singapore-ETH Centre, ETH Zurich
    Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services, Orange Labs)

  • Samuel Anklesaria

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Mohammad Vazifeh

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Carlo Ratti

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Geoffrey B. West

    (Santa Fe Institute)

Abstract

Human mobility impacts many aspects of a city, from its spatial structure1–3 to its response to an epidemic4–7. It is also ultimately key to social interactions8, innovation9,10 and productivity11. However, our quantitative understanding of the aggregate movements of individuals remains incomplete. Existing models—such as the gravity law12,13 or the radiation model14—concentrate on the purely spatial dependence of mobility flows and do not capture the varying frequencies of recurrent visits to the same locations. Here we reveal a simple and robust scaling law that captures the temporal and spatial spectrum of population movement on the basis of large-scale mobility data from diverse cities around the globe. According to this law, the number of visitors to any location decreases as the inverse square of the product of their visiting frequency and travel distance. We further show that the spatio-temporal flows to different locations give rise to prominent spatial clusters with an area distribution that follows Zipf’s law15. Finally, we build an individual mobility model based on exploration and preferential return to provide a mechanistic explanation for the discovered scaling law and the emerging spatial structure. Our findings corroborate long-standing conjectures in human geography (such as central place theory16 and Weber’s theory of emergent optimality10) and allow for predictions of recurrent flows, providing a basis for applications in urban planning, traffic engineering and the mitigation of epidemic diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Schläpfer & Lei Dong & Kevin O’Keeffe & Paolo Santi & Michael Szell & Hadrien Salat & Samuel Anklesaria & Mohammad Vazifeh & Carlo Ratti & Geoffrey B. West, 2021. "The universal visitation law of human mobility," Nature, Nature, vol. 593(7860), pages 522-527, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:593:y:2021:i:7860:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03480-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03480-9
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