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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher H. Trisos

    (University of Cape Town
    National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)
    University of Cape Town)

  • Cory Merow

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Alex L. Pigot

    (University College London)

Abstract

As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon1–3. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species; however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 °C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher H. Trisos & Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot, 2020. "The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7804), pages 496-501, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:580:y:2020:i:7804:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2189-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Navarrete, Ignacio A. & Kim, Diane Y. & Wilcox, Cindy & Reed, Daniel C. & Ginsburg, David W. & Dutton, Jessica M. & Heidelberg, John & Raut, Yubin & Wilcox, Brian Howard, 2021. "Effects of depth-cycling on nutrient uptake and biomass production in the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Méjean, Aurélie & Pottier, Antonin & Zuber, Stéphane & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Maolin Li & Yongxun Zhang & Changhong Miao & Lulu He & Jiatao Chen, 2022. "Centennial Change and Source–Sink Interaction Process of Traditional Agricultural Landscape: Case from Xin’an Traditional Cherry Cultivation System (1920–2020)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, October.
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    10. Sandra Garcés-Pastor & Eric Coissac & Sébastien Lavergne & Christoph Schwörer & Jean-Paul Theurillat & Peter D. Heintzman & Owen S. Wangensteen & Willy Tinner & Fabian Rey & Martina Heer & Astrid Rutz, 2022. "High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant diversity is associated with human land use and climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Yonghua Li & Xinyi Ding & Song Yao & Bo Zhang & Hezhou Jiang & Junshen Zhang & Xinwei Liu, 2024. "Multiscale Ecological Zoning Management with Coupled Ecosystem Service Bundles and Supply–Demand Balance, the Case of Hangzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Giuliana Vinci & Lucia Maddaloni & Sabrina Antonia Prencipe & Marco Ruggeri & Maria Vittoria Di Loreto, 2022. "A Comparison of the Mediterranean Diet and Current Food Patterns in Italy: A Life Cycle Thinking Approach for a Sustainable Consumption," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Yuliya G. Leskova & Irina K. Kuzmina & Tahir E. Rakhmatullin & Natalia V. Dzhagaryan & Denis A. Popyrkin & Vera N. Kolodkina, 2020. "Economic and Legal Aspects for Construction Business to Ensure Environmental Safety by Self-Regulating Organizations: The Case of Russia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 20-29.
    14. Gabriele Paolinelli & Marco Cei & Nicoletta Cristiani & Ludovica Marinaro & Flavia Veronesi, 2022. "Don’t Split Them Up! Landscape Design of Multifunctional Open Spaces Suitable for Coping with Flash Floods and River Floods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Yusuke Satoh & Kei Yoshimura & Yadu Pokhrel & Hyungjun Kim & Hideo Shiogama & Tokuta Yokohata & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshihide Wada & Peter Burek & Edward Byers & Hannes Müller Schmied & Dieter Gerten & S, 2022. "The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Andreas Schwarz Meyer & Alex L. Pigot & Cory Merow & Kristin Kaschner & Cristina Garilao & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Christopher H. Trisos, 2024. "Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Meiling Yin & Hanna Choi & Eun-Ju Lee, 2022. "Can Climate Change Awaken Ecological Consciousness? A Neuroethical Approach to Green Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
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    19. Beverly E. Law & William R. Moomaw & Tara W. Hudiburg & William H. Schlesinger & John D. Sterman & George M. Woodwell, 2022. "Creating Strategic Reserves to Protect Forest Carbon and Reduce Biodiversity Losses in the United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    20. Daijun Liu & Philipp Semenchuk & Franz Essl & Bernd Lenzner & Dietmar Moser & Tim M. Blackburn & Phillip Cassey & Dino Biancolini & César Capinha & Wayne Dawson & Ellie E. Dyer & Benoit Guénard & Evan, 2023. "The impact of land use on non-native species incidence and number in local assemblages worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    21. Li, Ye & Chen, Yiyan, 2021. "Development of an SBM-ML model for the measurement of green total factor productivity: The case of pearl river delta urban agglomeration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    22. Thomas F. Johnson & Nick J. B. Isaac & Agustin Paviolo & Manuela González-Suárez, 2023. "Socioeconomic factors predict population changes of large carnivores better than climate change or habitat loss," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    23. Gaspar Manzanera-Benito & Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, 2021. "Mapping the Energy Flows and GHG Emissions of a Medium-Size City: The Case of Valladolid (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-29, November.
    24. Yanqing Xu & Yan Liu & Ruidun Chen & Yifei Meng & Kenan Li & Cong Fu, 2023. "Study on the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of China’s carbon emissions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.

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