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Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Dwyer-Lindgren

    (University of Washington)

  • Michael A. Cork

    (University of Washington)

  • Amber Sligar

    (University of Washington)

  • Krista M. Steuben

    (University of Washington)

  • Kate F. Wilson

    (University of Washington)

  • Naomi R. Provost

    (University of Washington)

  • Benjamin K. Mayala

    (DHS program, ICF International)

  • John D. VanderHeide

    (University of Washington)

  • Michael L. Collison

    (University of Washington)

  • Jason B. Hall

    (University of Washington)

  • Molly H. Biehl

    (University of Washington)

  • Austin Carter

    (University of Washington)

  • Tahvi Frank

    (University of Washington)

  • Dirk Douwes-Schultz

    (University of Washington)

  • Roy Burstein

    (University of Washington)

  • Daniel C. Casey

    (University of Washington)

  • Aniruddha Deshpande

    (University of Washington)

  • Lucas Earl

    (University of Washington)

  • Charbel El Bcheraoui

    (University of Washington)

  • Tamer H. Farag

    (University of Washington)

  • Nathaniel J. Henry

    (University of Washington)

  • Damaris Kinyoki

    (University of Washington)

  • Laurie B. Marczak

    (University of Washington)

  • Molly R. Nixon

    (University of Washington)

  • Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman

    (University of Washington)

  • David Pigott

    (University of Washington)

  • Robert C. Reiner

    (University of Washington)

  • Jennifer M. Ross

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Lauren E. Schaeffer

    (University of Washington)

  • David L. Smith

    (University of Washington)

  • Nicole Davis Weaver

    (University of Washington)

  • Kirsten E. Wiens

    (University of Washington)

  • Jeffrey W. Eaton

    (University of Washington
    Imperial College London)

  • Jessica E. Justman

    (Columbia University
    Columbia University)

  • Alex Opio

    (Medireal Investment Uganda)

  • Benn Sartorius

    (University of KwaZulu-Natal)

  • Frank Tanser

    (University of KwaZulu-Natal
    Africa Health Research Institute
    University of KwaZulu-Natal
    University College London)

  • Njeri Wabiri

    (Human Sciences Research Council)

  • Peter Piot

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Christopher J. L. Murray

    (University of Washington)

  • Simon I. Hay

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Dwyer-Lindgren & Michael A. Cork & Amber Sligar & Krista M. Steuben & Kate F. Wilson & Naomi R. Provost & Benjamin K. Mayala & John D. VanderHeide & Michael L. Collison & Jason B. Hall & Molly H, 2019. "Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017," Nature, Nature, vol. 570(7760), pages 189-193, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:570:y:2019:i:7760:d:10.1038_s41586-019-1200-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1200-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2022. "Privacy protection, measurement error, and the integration of remote sensing and socioeconomic survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Van Niekerk, Janet & Krainski, Elias & Rustand, Denis & Rue, Håvard, 2023. "A new avenue for Bayesian inference with INLA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Oswald, Grace, 2024. "Baiting the hook: Fish scarcity, gendered division of labour, and the fish-for-sex trade," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    4. Karimli, Leyla & Ssewamala, Fred M. & Neilands, Torsten B., 2023. "The impact of poverty-reduction intervention on child mental health mediated by family relations: Findings from a cluster-randomized trial in Uganda," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).

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