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Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Author

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  • Michael T. Burrows

    (Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK)

  • David S. Schoeman

    (School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Queensland QLD 4558, Australia)

  • Anthony J. Richardson

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia
    Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics (CARM), School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia)

  • Jorge García Molinos

    (Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK)

  • Ary Hoffmann

    (University of Melbourne, 30 Flemington Road, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia)

  • Lauren B. Buckley

    (The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Pippa J. Moore

    (Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DA, UK
    Centre for Marine Ecosystems Research, Edith Cowan University, Perth 6027, Australia)

  • Christopher J. Brown

    (The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia)

  • John F. Bruno

    (The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Carlos M. Duarte

    (The UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, Australia
    IMEDEA (UIB-CSIC), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, Esporles 07190, Spain
    Faculty of Marine Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80207, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia)

  • Benjamin S. Halpern

    (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California
    Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK)

  • Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    (The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia)

  • Carrie V. Kappel

    (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California)

  • Wolfgang Kiessling

    (GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Paläoumwelt, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstrasse 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
    Museum für Naturkunde, Invalidenstr asse 43, 10115 Berlin, Germany)

  • Mary I. O’Connor

    (University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada)

  • John M. Pandolfi

    (School of Biological Sciences, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia)

  • Camille Parmesan

    (Integrative Biology, University of Texas
    Marine Institute, Drake Circus, University of Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK)

  • William J. Sydeman

    (Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, California 94952, USA)

  • Simon Ferrier

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia)

  • Kristen J. Williams

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia)

  • Elvira S. Poloczanska

    (Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia)

Abstract

Global maps constructed using climate-change velocities to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches between 1960 and 2100 show past and future shifts in ecological climate niches; properties of these trajectories are used to infer changes in species distributions, and thus identify areas that will act as climate sources and sinks, and geographical barriers to species migrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael T. Burrows & David S. Schoeman & Anthony J. Richardson & Jorge García Molinos & Ary Hoffmann & Lauren B. Buckley & Pippa J. Moore & Christopher J. Brown & John F. Bruno & Carlos M. Duarte & Be, 2014. "Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity," Nature, Nature, vol. 507(7493), pages 492-495, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:507:y:2014:i:7493:d:10.1038_nature12976
    DOI: 10.1038/nature12976
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    1. repec:sae:envval:v:25:y:2016:i:4:p:465-483 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Drielsma, Michael J. & Love, Jamie & Williams, Kristen J. & Manion, Glenn & Saremi, Hanieh & Harwood, Tom & Robb, Janeen, 2017. "Bridging the gap between climate science and regional-scale biodiversity conservation in south-eastern Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 343-362.
    3. Kenshi Hibino & Izuru Takayabu & Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, 2015. "Objective estimate of future climate analogues projected by an ensemble AGCM experiment under the SRES A1B scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 677-689, August.
    4. Talya ten Brink, 2023. "Projections of Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Protected Areas: Palau, the Great Barrier Reef, and the Bering Sea," Papers 2309.02323, arXiv.org.
    5. Morgan Gray & Elisabeth Micheli & Tosha Comendant & Adina Merenlender, 2020. "Quantifying Climate-Wise Connectivity across a Topographically Diverse Landscape," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Daniel M. Hueholt & Elizabeth A. Barnes & James W. Hurrell & Ariel L. Morrison, 2024. "Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Clive N. Trueman & Iraide Artetxe-Arrate & Lisa A. Kerr & Andrew J. S. Meijers & Jay R. Rooker & Rahul Sivankutty & Haritz Arrizabalaga & Antonio Belmonte & Simeon Deguara & Nicolas Goñi & Enrique Rod, 2023. "Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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