Species–area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss

Getting a handle on extinction rates There is broad agreement that Earth is facing a biodiversity crisis, but estimating extinction rates remains a daunting task, not least because it is almost impossible to determine when the very last individual of a species has died. Fangliang He and Stephen Hubbell demonstrate that a widely used indirect method of estimating extinction rates — based on backward extrapolation of species–area relationship data — tends to overestimate the problem. As an example, they cite data on passerine bird species in the United States. He and Hubbell stress that habitat loss remains a real and growing threat to biodiversity, although we need to develop more reliable means of monitoring the situation.