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Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment

Author

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  • Seth Stein

    (Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, USA)

  • Mian Liu

    (University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA)

Abstract

Aftershock or small quake? The assessment of earthquake hazards within continents relies in large part on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes in the historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. However, this assumption is beginning to look suspect. As demonstrated by the Wenchuan earthquake of May 2008, faults with low recent seismicity are not immune from large earthquakes. And now Seth Stein and Mian Liu argue that many recent intraplate earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago, so do not point to the location of future large earthquakes. Stein and Liu present a simple model predicting that the duration of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Thus the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity may overestimate the hazard in currently active areas and underestimate it elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth Stein & Mian Liu, 2009. "Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7269), pages 87-89, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:462:y:2009:i:7269:d:10.1038_nature08502
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08502
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Wang & Ian G. Main, 2023. "Strong historical earthquakes and their relationships with the Tan-Lu fault system and modern seismicity in eastern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 539-564, January.
    2. Yuxin Gao & Xianrui Yu & Menghao Xi & Qiuhong Zhao, 2023. "Assessment of Vulnerability Caused by Earthquake Disasters Based on DEA: A Case Study of County-Level Units in Chinese Mainland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Zaccagnino, Davide & Telesca, Luciano & Doglioni, Carlo, 2023. "Global versus local clustering of seismicity: Implications with earthquake prediction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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