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Arctic tropospheric warming amplification?

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  • Peter W. Thorne

    (* Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. peter.thorne@metoffice.gov.uk)

Abstract

Arising from: R. G. Graversen, T. Mauritsen, M. Tjernström, E. Källén & G. Svensson Nature 451, 53–56 (2008)10.1038/nature06502 ; Graversen et al. reply Relative rates of temperature change between the troposphere and surface, and the mechanisms that produce these changes, have long been a contentious issue. Graversen et al.1, predicated upon the ERA-40 reanalysis2, report polar tropospheric amplification of surface warming and attempt to explain this finding dynamically. Here we show (1) that data from satellites3,4 and weather balloons5 indicate that the ERA-40 trends are increasingly unrealistic polewards of 62° N; (2) that the two other reanalyses considered1 exhibit very different polar trends; and (3) that the vertical profile of polar trends in ERA-40 is unrealistic, particularly above the troposphere. These quasi-independent strands of evidence imply that the pattern of warming in the Arctic troposphere is highly unlikely to be as given in ERA-40 and as reported by Graversen et al.1.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter W. Thorne, 2008. "Arctic tropospheric warming amplification?," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7210), pages 1-2, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:455:y:2008:i:7210:d:10.1038_nature07256
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07256
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    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Alexeev & Igor Esau & Igor Polyakov & Sarah Byam & Svetlana Sorokina, 2012. "Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 215-239, March.

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