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Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Author

Listed:
  • Catia M. Domingues

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • John A. Church

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
    Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Private Bag 80, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • Neil J. White

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
    Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Private Bag 80, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • Peter J. Gleckler

    (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Mail Code L-103, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, California 94550, USA)

  • Susan E. Wijffels

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • Paul M. Barker

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

  • Jeff R. Dunn

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia)

Abstract

Upper-ocean warming and sea-level rise Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from observations, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. Domingues et al. report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper ocean from 1950 to 2003, applying corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Their ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961 to 2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993 to 2003, consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s were biased by instrumental errors. The authors add observational estimates of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise, and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is in good agreement with their updated estimate of near-global mean sea level.

Suggested Citation

  • Catia M. Domingues & John A. Church & Neil J. White & Peter J. Gleckler & Susan E. Wijffels & Paul M. Barker & Jeff R. Dunn, 2008. "Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7198), pages 1090-1093, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:453:y:2008:i:7198:d:10.1038_nature07080
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07080
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    Cited by:

    1. Ye, Guanqiong & Chou, Loke Ming & Yang, Shengyun & Wu, Jiaping & Liu, Pei & Jin, Changwei, 2015. "Is integrated coastal management an effective framework for promoting coastal sustainability in China’s coastal cities?," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 48-55.
    2. Ruiz, Javier & Prieto, Laura & Astorga, Diana, 2012. "A model for temperature control of jellyfish (Cotylorhiza tuberculata) outbreaks: A causal analysis in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 59-69.
    3. Edyta Kiedrzyńska & Marcin Kiedrzyński & Maciej Zalewski, 2015. "Sustainable floodplain management for flood prevention and water quality improvement," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 955-977, March.
    4. Frederick Bloetscher & Colin Polsky & Keren Bolter & Diana Mitsova & Kristin Palbicke Garces & Roderick King & Isabel Cosio Carballo & Karen Hamilton, 2016. "Assessing Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Public Health and Vulnerable Populations in Southeast Florida and Providing a Framework to Improve Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Daniel Johansson, 2011. "Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 107-134, September.
    6. Kerstin Zander & Lisa Petheram & Stephen Garnett, 2013. "Stay or leave? Potential climate change adaptation strategies among Aboriginal people in coastal communities in northern Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 591-609, June.
    7. Ryan Sriver & Nathan Urban & Roman Olson & Klaus Keller, 2012. "Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 893-902, December.
    8. Balasubramanya T. Nadiga & Nathan M. Urban, 2019. "Improved representation of ocean heat content in energy balance models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 503-516, March.
    9. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    10. G. Jordà & D. Gomis & M. Marcos, 2012. "Comment on “Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change” by Troccoli et al," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1081-1087, August.
    11. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    12. Dayong Zhang & Jun Li & Qiang Ji & Shunsuke Managi, 2021. "Climate variations, culture and economic behaviour of Chinese households," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Mort Webster, 2009. "Uncertainty and the IPCC. An editorial comment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 37-40, January.
    14. Lichun Sui & Jun Wang & Xiaomei Yang & Zhihua Wang, 2020. "Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Coastline Changes in Indonesia from 1990 to 2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-28, April.

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