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Long-range energy forecasts are no more than fairy tales

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  • Vaclav Smil

    (University of Manitoba)

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Vaclav Smil, 2008. "Long-range energy forecasts are no more than fairy tales," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7192), pages 154-154, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:453:y:2008:i:7192:d:10.1038_453154a
    DOI: 10.1038/453154a
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    Cited by:

    1. T. Gasser & C. Guivarch & K. Tachiiri & C. D. Jones & P. Ciais, 2015. "Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, November.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    3. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Cullen, Jonathan M. & Allwood, Julian M., 2010. "Theoretical efficiency limits for energy conversion devices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2059-2069.
    5. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    6. C. Wilson & A. Grubler & N. Bauer & V. Krey & K. Riahi, 2013. "Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 381-395, May.
    7. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.

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