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Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity

Author

Listed:
  • Mark A. Saunders

    (Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK)

  • Adam S. Lea

    (Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK)

Abstract

Atlantic hurricanes The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity is widely believed to be due in part to rising sea surface temperatures, but to what extent is not known. Mark Saunders and Adam Lea quantify this contribution for storms forming in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico using a statistical model based on two environmental variables — local sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field. They conclude that local sea surface warming was responsible for about 40 per cent of the increase in hurricane activity (relative to the 1950–2000 average) between 1996 and 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark A. Saunders & Adam S. Lea, 2008. "Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7178), pages 557-560, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:451:y:2008:i:7178:d:10.1038_nature06422
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06422
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    Cited by:

    1. Craig Loehle & Erica Staehling, 2020. "Hurricane trend detection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1345-1357, November.
    2. Christina M. Giovas, 2021. "Sustainable Indigenous Fishing in the Pre-Contact Caribbean: Evidence and Critical Considerations from Carriacou, Grenada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan, 2019. "Valuing Seawall Protection in the Wake of Hurricane Ike," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 257-279, October.
    4. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    5. Elio Roca-Flores & Gerardo G. Naumis, 2021. "Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2455-2465, September.
    6. Iris Grossmann & M. Morgan, 2011. "Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 543-579, October.
    7. Ernest Molua, 2012. "Climate extremes, location vulnerability and private costs of property protection in Southwestern Cameroon," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 293-310, March.
    8. Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado & Pedro Alejandro-Camis & Gerardo Cabrera-Beauchamp & Jaime S. Fonseca-Miranda & Nicolás X. Gómez-Andújar & Pedro Gómez & Roger Guzmán-Rodríguez & Iván Olivo-Maldonado & Sam, 2024. "Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-62, February.
    9. Ranger, Nicola & Niehörster, Falk, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37587, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Dakota M. Lewis & Katie E. Durham & Linda J. Walters & Geoffrey S. Cook, 2021. "A Resident Fish Guild as a Higher Trophic Level Indicator of Oyster Reef Restoration Success," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Nekeisha Spencer & Eric Strobl, 2022. "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(1), pages 141-157, March.
    12. Andrea Staid & Seth Guikema & Roshanak Nateghi & Steven Quiring & Michael Gao, 2014. "Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 535-546, December.
    13. A. Deo & D. Ganer & G. Nair, 2011. "Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 771-786, November.
    14. Stanley Smith & Chris McCarty, 2009. "Fleeing the storm(s): an examination of evacuation behavior during florida’s 2004 hurricane season," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 127-145, February.

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