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Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years

Author

Listed:
  • Johan Nyberg

    (Geological Survey of Sweden, Box 670, SE-751 28 Uppsala, Sweden)

  • Björn A. Malmgren

    (Göteborg University, Box 460, SE-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden)

  • Amos Winter

    (University of Puerto Rico, PO Box 9013)

  • Mark R. Jury

    (University of Puerto Rico, PO Box 9016, PR 00681-9013, Mayagüez, Puerto Rico)

  • K. Halimeda Kilbourne

    (College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140, St Petersburg, Florida 33707, USA
    NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA)

  • Terrence M. Quinn

    (College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140, St Petersburg, Florida 33707, USA
    Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1100, Austin, Texas 78712, USA
    Institute for Geophysics, J. J. Pickle Research Campus, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, Texas 78758, USA)

Abstract

Hurricane seasons 'normal' The frequency of major hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean has increased significantly since 1995, but it is still not clear whether this is due to global warming or natural variability. One way to address this question is to consider changes in hurricane frequency in the past, but reliable observations of Atlantic hurricane activity only cover a few decades. Nyberg et al. use proxy records from corals and a marine sediment core that appear to reflect changes in the two main parameters that influence hurricane activity — vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature — to reconstruct the frequency of major hurricanes over the Atlantic since 1730. The results indicate that the frequency was anomalously low during the 1970s and 1980s compared with the past 270 years, and that the phase of increased hurricane frequency since 1995 represents a recovery to 'normal' hurricane activity. These trends appear to be related to wind shear, but what caused this parameter to change remains uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Nyberg & Björn A. Malmgren & Amos Winter & Mark R. Jury & K. Halimeda Kilbourne & Terrence M. Quinn, 2007. "Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7145), pages 698-701, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:447:y:2007:i:7145:d:10.1038_nature05895
    DOI: 10.1038/nature05895
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    Cited by:

    1. Melbourne-Thomas, J. & Johnson, C.R. & Fulton, E.A., 2011. "Regional-scale scenario analysis for the Meso-American Reef system: Modelling coral reef futures under multiple stressors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(10), pages 1756-1770.
    2. Iris Grossmann & M. Morgan, 2011. "Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(3), pages 543-579, October.
    3. Paul A. Knapp & Justin T. Maxwell & Peter T. Soulé, 2016. "Tropical cyclone rainfall variability in coastal North Carolina derived from longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.): AD 1771–2014," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 311-323, March.
    4. Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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