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Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

Author

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  • Dana L. Royer

    (Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut 06459, USA)

  • Robert A. Berner

    (Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA)

  • Jeffrey Park

    (Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA)

Abstract

Calibrating the climate Understanding the response of global mean surface temperature to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is critical for interpreting past climate change, and for predicting future trends. Most estimates of the temperature increase resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the 'climate sensitivity', are based on records spanning the past few decades to millennia, so may have limited applicability under different climate conditions. Royer et al. use a novel approach, which involves modelling carbon dioxide concentrations and comparing the simulations with proxy records, to estimate climate sensitivity on long timescales. The results indicate that climate sensitivity was almost certainly greater than 1.5 °C. This is consistent with estimates based on short-term records, suggesting that it may have been a robust feature of Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years.

Suggested Citation

  • Dana L. Royer & Robert A. Berner & Jeffrey Park, 2007. "Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years," Nature, Nature, vol. 446(7135), pages 530-532, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:446:y:2007:i:7135:d:10.1038_nature05699
    DOI: 10.1038/nature05699
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
    2. BRECHET, Thierry & THENIE, Julien & ZEIMES, Thibaut & ZUBER, Stéphane, 2010. "The benefits of cooperation under uncertainty: the case of climate change," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Salvador Pueyo, 2012. "Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 163-179, July.
    4. Rattanachot, Wit & Wang, Yuhong & Chong, Dan & Suwansawas, Suchatvee, 2015. "Adaptation strategies of transport infrastructures to global climate change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 159-166.
    5. Witoon, Thongthai & Mungcharoen, Thumrongrut & Limtrakul, Jumras, 2014. "Biotemplated synthesis of highly stable calcium-based sorbents for CO2 capture via a precipitation method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-40.
    6. Fildes, Robert & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2011. "Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 968-995, October.

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