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Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures

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  • Steven G. Wesnousky

    (University of Nevada)

Abstract

Earthquakes: the endgame Once an earthquake has been initiated the question arises, where will it end? How big an earthquake will it be? Analysis of the mapped surface rupture traces of 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes, the first at San Andreas, California in 1857 and the most recent at Denali, Alaska in 2002, shows that rupture endpoints frequently coincide with fault steps or the termini of active fault traces, and that a fault step of more than 3 or 4 km effectively stops an earthquake rupture in its tracks. These findings are relevant to seismic hazard analysis by suggesting limits on the probable extent of future earthquakes on known active faults.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven G. Wesnousky, 2006. "Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures," Nature, Nature, vol. 444(7117), pages 358-360, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:444:y:2006:i:7117:d:10.1038_nature05275
    DOI: 10.1038/nature05275
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Kinzhikeyev & József Rohács & Dániel Rohács & Anita Boros, 2020. "Sustainable Disaster Response Management Related to Large Technical Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Faqi Diao & Huihui Weng & Jean-Paul Ampuero & Zhigang Shao & Rongjiang Wang & Feng Long & Xiong Xiong, 2024. "Physics-based assessment of earthquake potential on the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault system in southwestern China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Yanbao Li & Yongkang Ran & Hu Wang & Fuyao Wu, 2014. "Paleoseismic records of large earthquakes on the cross-basin fault in the Ganyanchi pull-apart basin, Haiyuan fault, northeastern Tibetan Plateau," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1695-1713, April.

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