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Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • W. H. Bakun

    (US Geological Survey)

  • B. Aagaard

    (US Geological Survey)

  • B. Dost

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Seismology Division)

  • W. L. Ellsworth

    (US Geological Survey)

  • J. L. Hardebeck

    (US Geological Survey)

  • R. A. Harris

    (US Geological Survey)

  • C. Ji

    (Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Caltech)

  • M. J. S. Johnston

    (US Geological Survey)

  • J. Langbein

    (US Geological Survey)

  • J. J. Lienkaemper

    (US Geological Survey)

  • A. J. Michael

    (US Geological Survey)

  • J. R. Murray

    (US Geological Survey)

  • R. M. Nadeau

    (Berkeley Seismological Laboratory)

  • P. A. Reasenberg

    (US Geological Survey)

  • M. S. Reichle

    (California Geological Survey)

  • E. A. Roeloffs

    (US Geological Survey)

  • A. Shakal

    (California Geological Survey)

  • R. W. Simpson

    (US Geological Survey)

  • F. Waldhauser

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

Suggested Citation

  • W. H. Bakun & B. Aagaard & B. Dost & W. L. Ellsworth & J. L. Hardebeck & R. A. Harris & C. Ji & M. J. S. Johnston & J. Langbein & J. J. Lienkaemper & A. J. Michael & J. R. Murray & R. M. Nadeau & P. A, 2005. "Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7061), pages 969-974, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:437:y:2005:i:7061:d:10.1038_nature04067
    DOI: 10.1038/nature04067
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    Cited by:

    1. Peng Li & Mei-feng Cai, 2022. "Insights into seismicity from the perspective of the crustal stress field: a comment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1153-1178, March.
    2. He, Xuan & Zhao, Hai & Cai, Wei & Li, Guang-Guang & Pei, Fan-Dong, 2015. "Analyzing the structure of earthquake network by k-core decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 34-43.

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