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El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium

Author

Listed:
  • Kim M. Cobb

    (University of California-San Diego
    California Institute of Technology)

  • Christopher D. Charles

    (University of California-San Diego)

  • Hai Cheng

    (University of Minnesota)

  • R. Lawrence Edwards

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30–150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim M. Cobb & Christopher D. Charles & Hai Cheng & R. Lawrence Edwards, 2003. "El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6946), pages 271-276, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:424:y:2003:i:6946:d:10.1038_nature01779
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01779
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippa A. Higgins & Jonathan G. Palmer & Martin S. Andersen & Christian S. M. Turney & Fiona Johnson, 2023. "Extreme events in the multi-proxy South Pacific drought atlas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Christina M. Giovas, 2021. "Sustainable Indigenous Fishing in the Pre-Contact Caribbean: Evidence and Critical Considerations from Carriacou, Grenada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Feng Zhu & Julien Emile-Geay & Kevin J. Anchukaitis & Gregory J. Hakim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Mariano S. Morales & Matthew Toohey & Jonathan King, 2022. "A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Joëlle Gergis & Ailie Gallant & Karl Braganza & David Karoly & Kathryn Allen & Louise Cullen & Rosanne D’Arrigo & Ian Goodwin & Pauline Grierson & Shayne McGregor, 2012. "On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 923-944, April.
    5. Johannes Koch & John Clague, 2011. "Extensive glaciers in northwest North America during Medieval time," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 593-613, August.

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