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Regional warming and malaria resurgence

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan A. Patz

    (Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Mike Hulme

    (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia)

  • Cynthia Rosenzweig

    (NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia University)

  • Timothy D. Mitchell

    (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia)

  • Richard A. Goldberg

    (NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia University)

  • Andrew K. Githeko

    (Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Centre for Vector Biology and Control Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute)

  • Subhash Lele

    (University of Alberta)

  • Anthony J. McMichael

    (National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University)

  • David Le Sueur

    (South African Medical Research Council)

Abstract

Disease outbreaks are known to be often influenced by local weather, but how changes in disease trends might be affected by long-term global warming is more difficult to establish. In a study of malaria in the African highlands, Hay et al.1 found no significant change in long-term climate at four locations where malaria incidence has been increasing since 1976. We contend, however, that their conclusions are likely to be flawed by their inappropriate use of a global climate data set. Moreover, the absence of a historical climate signal allows no inference to be drawn about the impact of future climate change on malaria in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan A. Patz & Mike Hulme & Cynthia Rosenzweig & Timothy D. Mitchell & Richard A. Goldberg & Andrew K. Githeko & Subhash Lele & Anthony J. McMichael & David Le Sueur, 2002. "Regional warming and malaria resurgence," Nature, Nature, vol. 420(6916), pages 627-628, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:420:y:2002:i:6916:d:10.1038_420627a
    DOI: 10.1038/420627a
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Kutluay & Roy Brouwer & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Valuing malaria morbidity: results from a global meta-analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 301-321, July.
    2. Mehmet Kutluay & Roy Brouwer & Haripriya Gundimeda & Nitin Lokhande & Richard S. J. Tol, 2017. "Public preferences and valuation of new malaria risk," Working Paper Series 1917, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. R. Sari Kovats & Diarmid Campbell‐Lendrum & Franziska Matthies, 2005. "Climate Change and Human Health: Estimating Avoidable Deaths and Disease," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1409-1418, December.
    4. Volker Ermert & Andreas Fink & Heiko Paeth, 2013. "The potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa using bias-corrected regionalised climate projections and a simple malaria seasonality model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 741-754, October.
    5. Tonggang Fu & Hongzhu Liang & Hui Gao & Jintong Liu, 2021. "The Taihang Mountain Region of North China is Experiencing A Significant Warming Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.

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