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Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin S. Orlove

    (University of California
    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • John C. H. Chiang

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

  • Mark A. Cane

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

Abstract

Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop1. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Niño variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June—caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds—is indicative of an El Niño year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method2 of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Niño variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin S. Orlove & John C. H. Chiang & Mark A. Cane, 2000. "Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6765), pages 68-71, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:403:y:2000:i:6765:d:10.1038_47456
    DOI: 10.1038/47456
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    Cited by:

    1. Petersen, E. H. & Fraser, R. W., 2001. "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 259-274, October.
    2. David García-del-Amo & P. Graham Mortyn & Victoria Reyes-García, 2020. "Including indigenous and local knowledge in climate research: an assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 67-88, May.
    3. Abalo Emmanuel Mawuli & Peprah Prince & Appiah Divine Odame & Sarpong Belinda Serkyiwah Asante & Amankwaa Godfred & Nakoja Yagah, 2017. "Perceived synergy between deforestation and/or forest degradation and climate variability and change in the Ejisu-Juaben Municipality, Ghana," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 5(4), pages 40-56, December.
    4. Boubacar Toukal Assoumana & Mbaye Ndiaye & Grace Van Der Puije & Mamourou Diourte & Thomas Gaiser, 2016. "Comparative Assessment of Local Farmers’ Perceptions of Meteorological Events and Adaptations Strategies: Two Case Studies in Niger Republic," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 118-118, April.
    5. Valdivia, Corinne & Kengo, Milton & Jimenez, Elizabeth & Turin, Cecilia, 2015. "Climate change, global drivers and local decision makers in rural communities: the role of translational research, and adaptation strategies that contribute to resilience," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212725, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Maria Sánchez-Cortés & Elena Chavero, 2011. "Indigenous perception of changes in climate variability and its relationship with agriculture in a Zoque community of Chiapas, Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 363-389, August.
    7. Zack Guido & Sara Lopus & Kurt Waldman & Corrie Hannah & Andrew Zimmer & Natasha Krell & Chris Knudson & Lyndon Estes & Kelly Caylor & Tom Evans, 2021. "Perceived links between climate change and weather forecast accuracy: new barriers to tools for agricultural decision-making," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
    9. Marin Elisabeth Skidmore, 2023. "Outsourcing the dry season: Cattle ranchers' responses to weather shocks in the Brazilian Amazon," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 409-433, March.
    10. Scoville-Simonds, Morgan, 2018. "Climate, the Earth, and God – Entangled narratives of cultural and climatic change in the Peruvian Andes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 345-359.
    11. Valdivia, Corinne & Quiroz, Roberto, 2003. "Coping And Adapting To Increased Climate Variability In The Andes," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22221, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Ingrid Arotoma-Rojas & Lea Berrang-Ford & Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo & James D. Ford & Paul Cooke, 2022. "Indigenous Peoples’ Perceptions of Their Food System in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of Shawi Men in the Peruvian Amazon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.

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