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Horse sickness and ENSO in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Baylis

    (Institute for Animal Health
    Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute)

  • Philip S. Mellor

    (Institute for Animal Health)

  • Rudy Meiswinkel

    (Institute for Animal Health)

Abstract

African horse sickness (AHS) is the most lethal infectious horse disease, with mortality rates in susceptible animals of up to 95% (ref. 1). Since its discovery at Cape Colony in the early eighteenth century, major epizootics of this viral disease have occurred in South Africa once every 10 to 15 years on average; in the largest epizootic, more than 40% of the entire horse population died. However, the cause of these major epizootics has remained unknown until now. We have found a very strong association between the timing of these epizootics and the warm (El Niño) phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and suggest that the association is mediated by the combination of rainfall and drought brought to South Africa by ENSO.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Baylis & Philip S. Mellor & Rudy Meiswinkel, 1999. "Horse sickness and ENSO in South Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6720), pages 574-574, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:397:y:1999:i:6720:d:10.1038_17512
    DOI: 10.1038/17512
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