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Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge L. Sarmiento

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University)

  • Tertia M. C. Hughes

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University)

  • Ronald J. Stouffer

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University)

  • Syukuro Manabe

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University
    Earth Frontier Research System)

Abstract

A 1995 report1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a set of illustrative anthropogenic CO2 emission models leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 350 to 1,000 p.p.m. (1–4). Ocean carbon-cycle models used in calculating these scenarios assume that oceanic circulation and biology remain unchanged through time. Here we examine the importance of this assumption by using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model of global warming5 for the period 1765 to 2065. We find a large potential modification to the ocean carbon sink in a vast region of the Southern Ocean where increased rainfall leads to surface freshening and increased stratification6. The increased stratification reduces the downward flux of carbon and the loss of heat to the atmosphere, both of which decrease the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 relative to a constant-climate control scenario. Changes in the formation, transport and cycling of biological material may counteract the reduced uptake, but the response of the biological community to the climate change is difficult to predict on present understanding. Our simulation suggests that such physical and biological changes might already be occurring, and that they could substantially affect the ocean carbon sink over the next few decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge L. Sarmiento & Tertia M. C. Hughes & Ronald J. Stouffer & Syukuro Manabe, 1998. "Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 393(6682), pages 245-249, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:393:y:1998:i:6682:d:10.1038_30455
    DOI: 10.1038/30455
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    Cited by:

    1. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    2. Philip Fearnside & Daniel Lashof & Pedro Moura-Costa, 2000. "Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 239-270, September.
    3. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    4. Fernando Taboada & Ricardo Anadón, 2012. "Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 419-431, November.
    5. Koslow, J. Anthony & Couture, Jennifer, 2015. "Pacific Ocean observation programs: Gaps in ecological time series," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 408-414.
    6. Mignone, B.K & Sarmiento, J.L & Slater, R.D & Gnanadesikan, A, 2004. "Sensitivity of sequestration efficiency to mixing processes in the global ocean," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1467-1478.
    7. Bhat NA & Khare PK & Dar JA & Khan ML & SubashreeK & Rather MY & Sundarapandian SM, 2018. "Climate Change Combat – A Conspectus," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 38-41, July.
    8. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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