IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v393y1998i6682d10.1038_30455.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge L. Sarmiento

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University)

  • Tertia M. C. Hughes

    (Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University)

  • Ronald J. Stouffer

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University)

  • Syukuro Manabe

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University
    Earth Frontier Research System)

Abstract

A 1995 report1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a set of illustrative anthropogenic CO2 emission models leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 350 to 1,000 p.p.m. (1–4). Ocean carbon-cycle models used in calculating these scenarios assume that oceanic circulation and biology remain unchanged through time. Here we examine the importance of this assumption by using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model of global warming5 for the period 1765 to 2065. We find a large potential modification to the ocean carbon sink in a vast region of the Southern Ocean where increased rainfall leads to surface freshening and increased stratification6. The increased stratification reduces the downward flux of carbon and the loss of heat to the atmosphere, both of which decrease the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 relative to a constant-climate control scenario. Changes in the formation, transport and cycling of biological material may counteract the reduced uptake, but the response of the biological community to the climate change is difficult to predict on present understanding. Our simulation suggests that such physical and biological changes might already be occurring, and that they could substantially affect the ocean carbon sink over the next few decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge L. Sarmiento & Tertia M. C. Hughes & Ronald J. Stouffer & Syukuro Manabe, 1998. "Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 393(6682), pages 245-249, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:393:y:1998:i:6682:d:10.1038_30455
    DOI: 10.1038/30455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/30455
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/30455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip Fearnside & Daniel Lashof & Pedro Moura-Costa, 2000. "Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 239-270, September.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    3. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    4. Bhat NA & Khare PK & Dar JA & Khan ML & SubashreeK & Rather MY & Sundarapandian SM, 2018. "Climate Change Combat – A Conspectus," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 38-41, July.
    5. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Fernando Taboada & Ricardo Anadón, 2012. "Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 419-431, November.
    7. Koslow, J. Anthony & Couture, Jennifer, 2015. "Pacific Ocean observation programs: Gaps in ecological time series," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 408-414.
    8. Mignone, B.K & Sarmiento, J.L & Slater, R.D & Gnanadesikan, A, 2004. "Sensitivity of sequestration efficiency to mixing processes in the global ocean," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1467-1478.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:393:y:1998:i:6682:d:10.1038_30455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.