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Taking the measure of uncertainty

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  • Shripad Tuljapurkar

    (Mountain View Research)

Abstract

Forecasts of the size of the world's population in years to come are typically given as a medium (central) estimate bracketed by high and low variants. A different approach, which is for instance used in informing decisions over financial investments, is now being brought to bear on demographic forecasting. It involves estimating a range of population sizes in the future, along with the associated probabilities that the forecast will be accurate. Using this method, the odds that the world's population will double by the year 2050 are less than a third, but it is essentially a sure thing that the fraction of the population over the age of 60 will double.

Suggested Citation

  • Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Taking the measure of uncertainty," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6635), pages 760-761, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:387:y:1997:i:6635:d:10.1038_42818
    DOI: 10.1038/42818
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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
    3. W. Lutz & P. Saariluoma & W.C. Sanderson & S. Scherbov, 2000. "New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting," Working Papers ir00020, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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