Effects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies

Biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation require understanding of the potential trade-offs from possible future cropland expansion. Here we apply an interdisciplinary coupled modelling approach to identify areas under the globally highest expansion pressure of 1% to 30% future cropland expansion by 2030. On the basis of recent projections, we analyse the potential impacts on agricultural markets, biodiversity and CO2 land-use emissions of a 3.6% global cropland expansion scenario by 2030. We assess how global conservation policies could shift expansion pressure and alter the ensuing impacts. Our results confirm that the areas under pressure are located mainly in the tropics. A cropland expansion of 3.6% increases global agricultural production by 2%. The associated land-use change generates 17.1 Gt CO2 emissions and leads to a further decline in biodiversity intactness of 26% in the expanded areas. Conservation policies prohibiting the expansion into forests, wetlands and existing protected areas could substantially reduce emissions from land-use change, maintaining global agricultural productivity, but might have contrary effects on biodiversity. Strategic land-use planning could help reconcile agricultural production with environmental protection. The map of areas under expansion pressure presented here could contribute to improving the spatial planning of conservation measures.