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Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Colm Duffy

    (University of Limerick
    The James Hutton Institute)

  • Remi Prudhomme

    (CIRAD Département Environments et sociétés)

  • Brian Duffy
  • James Gibbons

    (Bangor University)

  • Pietro P. M. Iannetta

    (The James Hutton Institute)

  • Cathal O’Donoghue

    (National University of Ireland)

  • Mary Ryan

    (Teagasc)

  • David Styles

    (University of Limerick)

Abstract

Global scenario modelling for climate stabilization lacks national resolution, particularly for the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, impeding effective national climate policymaking. We generate 850 randomized scenarios of activity combinations for Ireland’s AFOLU sector in the year 2050 and evaluate associated greenhouse gas fluxes to the year 2100. Using a GWP100 ‘net-zero’ greenhouse gas definition, 146 scenarios achieve AFOLU climate neutrality and 38 contribute to national neutrality (a substantial AFOLU sink) by 2050. Just one scenario contributes to national climate neutrality to 2100, reflecting future declines in CO2 removals by new forests (excluding potential downstream mitigation). In the absence of technical solutions to dramatically reduce the emissions intensity of bovine production, national milk and beef output will need to be substantially curtailed to achieve net-zero emissions. Active CO2 removal on destocked land, via organic soil rewetting and ambitious afforestation, could moderate output declines in milk and beef production, reducing international carbon leakage risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Colm Duffy & Remi Prudhomme & Brian Duffy & James Gibbons & Pietro P. M. Iannetta & Cathal O’Donoghue & Mary Ryan & David Styles, 2022. "Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 973-980, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:5:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00946-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00946-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Henn, Daniel & Humphreys, James & Duffy, Colm & Gibbons, James & Styles, David, 2023. "Improved representation of cattle herd dynamics for bio-physical modelling of pathways to a climate neutral land sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

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