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A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Floerl

    (Cawthron Institute)

  • Javier Atalah

    (Cawthron Institute)

  • Ana B. Bugnot

    (University of Sydney
    Sydney Institute of Marine Science)

  • Mitchell Chandler

    (Cawthron Institute
    University of California San Diego)

  • Katherine A. Dafforn

    (Macquarie University)

  • Lisa Floerl

    (Cawthron Institute)

  • Anastasija Zaiko

    (Cawthron Institute
    University of Auckland)

  • Robert Major

    (Cawthron Institute)

Abstract

Around the world, coastal urbanization continues to replace natural marine habitats with engineered structures, resulting in wholesale changes to shallow-water ecosystems and associated socioecological impacts. This process is expected to continue over the coming decades. The development of meaningful strategies to minimize future impacts requires an understanding of the rate at which ‘coastal hardening’ will take place regionally. Here we show that coastal infrastructure has replaced more than half (52.9 ± 4.9%) of the coastline associated with 30 global urban centres. The regional extent of coastal hardening is explained by eight predictor variables associated with shipping, boating, regional economies, populations and coastline length. Using a case study approach, we forecasted a 50–76% expansion of coastal infrastructure over a 25-year period. Our model can aid decision-makers to anticipate increases in coastal hardening, supporting identification and management of future threats to coastal ecosystems alongside social, economic and cultural objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Floerl & Javier Atalah & Ana B. Bugnot & Mitchell Chandler & Katherine A. Dafforn & Lisa Floerl & Anastasija Zaiko & Robert Major, 2021. "A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1060-1067, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:4:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41893-021-00780-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00780-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Zezheng Liu & Sergio Fagherazzi & Qiang He & Olivier Gourgue & Junhong Bai & Xinhui Liu & Chiyuan Miao & Zhan Hu & Baoshan Cui, 2024. "A global meta-analysis on the drivers of salt marsh planting success and implications for ecosystem services," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Marcan Graffin & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Gregoire Thoumyre & Fabrice Papa & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Jennifer Montano & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Mohamed Wassim Baba & Fei, 2023. "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Yan, Fengqin & Wang, Xuege & Huang, Chong & Zhang, Junjue & Su, Fenzhen & Zhao, Yifei & Lyne, Vincent, 2023. "Sea Reclamation in Mainland China: Process, Pattern, and Management," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

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