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Historical dynamics of landslide risk from population and forest-cover changes in the Kivu Rift

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Depicker

    (KU Leuven)

  • Liesbet Jacobs

    (KU Leuven)

  • Nicholus Mboga

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Benoȋt Smets

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Anton Van Rompaey

    (KU Leuven)

  • Moritz Lennert

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Eléonore Wolff

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • François Kervyn

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa)

  • Caroline Michellier

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa)

  • Olivier Dewitte

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa)

  • Gerard Govers

    (KU Leuven)

Abstract

Human activity influences both the occurrence and impact of landslides in mountainous environments. Population pressure and the associated land-use changes are assumed to exacerbate landslide risk, yet there is a lack of statistical evidence to support this claim, especially in the Global South where historical records are scarce. In this work, we explore the interactions between population, deforestation and landslide risk in the Kivu Rift in Africa. To do so, we develop a holistic landslide risk model that evaluates 58 years of population and forest-cover trends. We show that the current landslide risk in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is twice as high as in neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi. Congolese households, on average, populate more hazardous terrain, probably as a result of conflicts and economic pull factors such as mining. Moreover, the recent large-scale deforestation of primary rainforest in the DRC has considerably exacerbated the landslide risk. Our analysis demonstrates how the legacy of deforestation, conflicts and population dynamics is reflected in the landslide risk in the Kivu Rift.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Depicker & Liesbet Jacobs & Nicholus Mboga & Benoȋt Smets & Anton Van Rompaey & Moritz Lennert & Eléonore Wolff & François Kervyn & Caroline Michellier & Olivier Dewitte & Gerard Govers, 2021. "Historical dynamics of landslide risk from population and forest-cover changes in the Kivu Rift," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 965-974, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:4:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-021-00757-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00757-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Henríquez & Robert Gilmore Pontius & Paulina Contreras, 2024. "Performance of CA_Markov and DINAMICA EGO models to evaluate urban risk in Antofagasta and Mejillones, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(9), pages 8411-8435, July.

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