Divergent responses of soil organic carbon to afforestation

Large-scale afforestation is regarded as an effective natural climate solution. However, afforestation-induced changes in soil organic C (SOC) are poorly quantified due to the paucity of large-scale sampling data. Here, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the afforestation impact on SOC stocks with a pairwise comparative study of samples from 619 control-and-afforested plot pairs in northern China. We found context-dependent effects of afforestation on SOC: afforestation increases SOC density (SOCD) in C-poor soils but decreases SOCD in C-rich soils, especially in deeper soil. Thus, the fixed biomass/SOC ratio assumed in previous studies could overestimate the SOC enhancement by afforestation. By extrapolating the sampling data to the entire region, we estimate that afforestation increased SOC stocks in northern China by only 234.9 ± 9.6 TgC over the last three decades. The study highlights the importance of including pre-afforestation soil properties in models of soil carbon dynamics and carbon sink projections.